The Southwest Monsoon of 2026 has officially arrived in India, reaching Kerala on June 4, three days later than the typical onset date of June 1. This delay is significant as it also occurred nine days after the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had forecasted its arrival on May 26.
As the monsoon progresses, the IMD has issued warnings regarding below-normal rainfall for the season, predicting that rainfall will be approximately 90% of the long-period average (LPA). This forecast indicates a 60% chance of experiencing a deficit or deficient monsoon, which could mean rainfall levels dropping to 89% of the LPA or lower.
El Niño’s Influence
The 2026 monsoon season is occurring under the looming threat of El Niño conditions, which are expected to develop during this period. Historically, El Niño events have been associated with suppressed rainfall in India. Current forecasts suggest that the El Niño of 2026 could be particularly strong, potentially rivaling the severe El Niño recorded between 1876 and 1878, which had devastating effects globally, including severe droughts in India.
The IMD’s predictions indicate that the average monsoon rainfall for the June to September period is 868.6 millimeters, based on historical data from 1971 to 2020. A season with rainfall at 90% of this average would be classified as below normal.
Regional Rainfall Predictions
According to the IMD’s spatial rainfall distribution map, most regions in India are expected to experience below-normal rainfall, with the northeastern region being the exception, where normal rainfall levels are anticipated.
Potential Weather Complications
In addition to El Niño, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are predicted, which could further complicate rainfall patterns. The presence of active western disturbances, which are weather systems that can bring unexpected precipitation, may also influence the monsoon’s behavior this year. These disturbances have previously led to extreme weather events, including flash floods and landslides.
As the monsoon season unfolds, the interaction between these various climatic factors will be crucial in determining the overall rainfall patterns across India. The situation remains dynamic, and ongoing monitoring will be essential to assess the impact of these weather phenomena on the 2026 monsoon.